Market Prospects Darken

Stocks have lost a lot of ground of late.  In the last month, the most used stock index, the S&P 500, has dropped over 10 percent.  Volatility from one day to the next is sufficient to unnerve even the most cold-blooded investor.  What may be still more upsetting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has promised to constrain credit and …

The Last Great Inflation and What It Says About the Present One

With inflation now firmly in the headlines (and in our lives), a look back at the last experience with this menace may offer needed perspective.  Of course, history never repeats exactly, and there is no claim here that it will.  Nonetheless, a look back will provide ammunition to counter much of the nonsense appearing in the media …

What Drives This Market Rally?

People are worried.  Society seems to have degenerated into partisan bickering and, too frequently, violence.  Democrats and Republicans seem more set on thwarting each other than serving the nation.  Inflation seems to have gotten away from the Federal Reserve (Fed).  Supply chains are failing.  And yet, despite this dispiriting picture, stocks continue to rise.  Is it that market participants are unaware …

New Goals For The Fed?

Federal Reserve Board (Fed) Chairman Jay Powell recently announced a new policy framework within which to achieve its long-accepted goals of full employment with low and stable inflation. This change created some disruptive uncertainty in financial markets about how the Fed will behave in the future. Today’s level of disruption and uncertainty would pale, however, …

COVID-10 Diary Number 7 (July 8, 2020)

Would negative interest rates help the economy recover from anti-virus strictures and propel the stock market rally?  President Donald Trump seems to think so.  He has publicly pressured Federal Reserve Board (Fed) Chairman Jay Powell to pursue just such a policy, saying that the country deserves the “gift” of below-zero interest rates.  Though the Fed …