Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently announced that by October the government will come up against its legal debt limit. Some in the media have interpreted this to mean that Washington is “running out of money,” while others have warned of a government “default.” The first characterization is technically true. Without Congressional action to increase the debt limit, much spending … Continue reading Is Washington Running Out of Money?
I got involved in an interesting investment conversation the other day and thought it might inform readers. The man who engaged me seemed concerned -- no matter what the market was doing. When stocks run high, as (almost inexplicably) they are now, he confesses to a powerful impulse to sell out for fear that markets cannot sustain their strength. When … Continue reading Markets Ultimately Are Tethered to Economic Reality
The Delta variant of Covid 19 has frightened many – in authority, in the media, and in the public. They worry on three counts: for their individual health; for the economy, because if the pandemic worsens, the authorities may re-impose the economic strictures that caused so much economic damage last year; they fear that re-imposition of those strictures … Continue reading The Delta Challenge to the Economy and Markets
Occasionally –often actually – a reader will ask me to divide my posts into two groups: those that explain general principles of investing and those on specific issues of the day. Of course, the requests are all phrased differently, but this how I read them. I can see the impulse behind such requests. The former can guide investment … Continue reading The Principles
Photo by Lorenzo on Pexels.com The stock market has had quite a run since last spring. From its lows at the end of March, the S&P 500 Stock Index has risen some 67 percent. It surpassed its pre-pandemic highs in August and has since gained an additional 12 percent. Other stock price measures have behaved similarly. It’s no surprise, … Continue reading Market Prospects for the New Year
Financial media, as well as these posts, often employ the word index – the Dow Jones Index, the S&P 500, the consumer price index, and more. After my long career manipulating, analyzing, and trying to forecast these indexes, they are as familiar to me as the back of my hand. But that’s no excuse: I owe my readers clarity, and … Continue reading What Are the Indices?
Photo by Alexander Dummer on Pexels.com Those are three words no sane investor should ever utter. When someone has had a good idea but didn’t act on it, he or she must realize that this particular opportunity is lost. The moment has passed, and it is better not to dwell on it, but to think instead on your next action … Continue reading Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda
Photo by Lukas on Pexels.com Whatever policies the next administration (presumably that of President-elect Joe Biden) adopts – whether good or bad for markets and for the economy – one thing is clear: the country has a powerful growth momentum going into the final months of this year and into 2021. This is especially evident in … Continue reading Powerful Growth Momentum
Photo by rawpixel.com on Pexels.com I have received several questions about the lasting effects of the pandemic on retirement planning. Unless you expect Covid-19 to significantly shorten your life, the pandemic changes nothing about the basics of retirement planning. The strategy is to amass sufficient assets, including pensions and annuities, to generate a comfortable income when the regular paycheck … Continue reading Retirement Planning After the Pandemic
Photo by energepic.com on Pexels.com A remarkable question came in the other day: “Would markets be this high if not for Covid?” On the surface, the answer looks obvious. The Covid-19 virus has killed people, strained health facilities, and prompted lockdowns and quarantines that have in turn severely hurt the economy and corporate profitability. None of these … Continue reading Has Covid Boosted the Stock Market?